Oberseminar Stochastik

M. Birkner, L. Hartung, A. Klenke

 

Dienstag, 14 Uhr, Institut für Mathematik, Gebäude 2413, Raum 05-136

 

Termine im Wintersemester 2025/26

 

17.02.2026
Andreas Klippel (TU Darmstadt)
Dimers, Double Dimers, and Random Permutations with Long-Range Interactions

Abstract:

The dimer model and its associated double-dimer model are fundamental objects in probability theory, statistical mechanics, and combinatorics. While their planar behavior is by now well understood, much less is known beyond planarity.

We study these models on Z^d-like graphs (d≥1), allowing long-range edges whose weights decay with distance. For a large class of such interactions, we show that monomer correlations in the dimer model remain uniformly positive, and that loops in the double-dimer model are macroscopic.

In this talk, I will introduce the models, explain their connection to random permutations, and give an overview of the main proof ideas. In particular, we will take a closer look at the key methods, namely the connection to a spin system and the use of reflection positivity. The project presented in this talk is joint work with Lorenzo Taggi and Wei Wu.

 Einladung

27.01.2026

Flavio Dalessi (Uni Basel) 

Branching Random Walk in Random Environment

We introduce the branching random walk in a spatially random branching environment. In this model, particles move according to a continuous-time simple random walk and, independently, branch at spatially dependent random rates. After discussing known properties of the model, we focus on establishing the (quenched) tightness of the maximal displacement around its median. Our approach extends to the discrete-space setting the arguments developed by Černý, Drewitz, and Oswald (2025) to prove tightness of the maximum of the branching Brownian motion in random environment. Specifically, we exploit the connection between the branching random walk and the randomized discrete Fisher-KPP equation through a study of the latter under different initial conditions.

Einladung

13.01.2026

Janine Piesold (JGU)

On a Branching Annihilating Random Walk

We consider a discrete-time branching annihilating random walk (BARW). Within a time step, each particle, before dying, produces a random number of offspring which are then randomly and independently displaced in space. If, after the displacement, a site is occupied by several particles, all particles at that site are annihilated. This can be thought of as a very strong form of local competition and entails that the system is not monotone.
The motivation of our current discussion stems from the long-term behaviour of this model on Z^d. For a Poissonian number of offspring and a uniform displacement within a ball of finite radius around the parent’s position, survival and complete convergence results were shown by Birkner et al. (2024). While a survival result was obtained for a more general class of offspring distributions, the extension of the complete convergence result to general offspring laws has proven to be more intricate. To gain more insight on this process, we further investigate the mean-field version of the BARW with general offspring law. In this talk, we will thus explore the BARW on the complete graph and highlight its connection to a deterministic dynamical system as well as a classical urn occupancy problem. We then discuss a local central limit result on the related urn occupancy problem based on Stein’s method. This result enables us to construct couplings, which potentially lay the foundation to prove the complete convergence result for the spatial model.

02.12.2025

Lars Schroeder (Universität Twente) 

Stationary distribution of node2vec random walks

node2vec random walks are tuneable random walks that come from the popular algorithm node2vec which is used for network embedding. The transition probabilities of the random walks depend on the previous visited node and on the triangles that contain the current and the previous node. Even though the algorithm is widely used in practice, mathematical properties of node2vec random walks almost have not been investigated. We present results on the stationary distribution for household models (graphs with clique-structured communities) by studying a coupling to a random walk that jumps in between communities and results on regular graphs by going to a higher-order space. Joint work with Clara Stegehuis, Gianmarco Bet and Luca Avena.

04.11.2025

 

Noela Müller  (Universität Eindhoven) - ENTFÄLLT LEIDER KURZFRISTIG !!!

Sharp thresholds and hitting times for factors in the Binomial random graph

 

25.11.2025

Louis Chataignier (Université Toulouse III)

Upper moderate deviation probabilities for the maximum of a branching random walk

In 2013, Elie Aı̈dékon obtained the convergence in distribution, as time n goes to infinity, of the maximum of a supercritical branching random walk, once recentered by an explicit function m(n). More recently, Lianghui Luo gave an asymptotic equivalent for the upper large deviation probabilities of this maximum. In this talk, I will present a joint work with Lianghui Luo in which we study an intermediate regime. We obtain an asymptotic equivalent for the probability that the maximum arrives at distance x(n) above m(n), where 1 << x(n) = O(sqrt(n)).

Einladung

 

 

Termine im Sommersemester 2025

08.07.2025 Réka Szabó (University of Groningen)
Percolation on the stationary distributions of the voter model with stirring

The voter model with stirring is a variant of the classical voter model with two possible opinions, 0 and 1. Each site updates its opinion at rate 1 by choosing a neighbour uniformly at random and adopting their opinion. In addition, each pair of neighbouring sites exchanges their opinions at rate v≥ 0, called the stirring parameter. This model was introduced in [Astoquillca '24], where the set of extremal stationary measures on the d-dimensional lattice were described. For d≥3 we consider a site percolation model on configurations sampled from the stationary measures, where the set of occupied sites is the set of voters with opinion 1. We show that the family of (extremal) stationary measures exhibits a non-trivial percolation phase transition in the density of 1s for large stirring parameters. Furthermore, as the stirring parameter approaches infinity, the critical density of this phase transition converges to the critical density for Bernoulli site percolation.
Joint work with Jhon Astoquillca and Daniel Valesin.Einladung und Abstract

 

15.04.2025 Janina Hesse (Leibniz-Institut für Resilienzforschung, Mainz)
How single cell properties can change network synchronization: The saddle-node loop bifurcation in neuron modelsNeurons have traditionally been classified into two types depending on their frequency-input curve. Both types are associated with a particular dynamic transition from rest to spiking. Our work highlights a third transition, for which we found experimental evidence in hippocampal slices. For typical Hodgkin-Huxley-like neuron model, we present a universal bifurcation structure, with the separation of timescale between voltage and ion channel dynamics as one of the bifurcation parameters. We predict that the strongest changes in synchronization with small parameter changes occur at a particular co-dimension two bifurcation, the saddle-node loop bifurcation, and we present characteristics of this transition, from changes in firing rate to phase response curve and synchronization. We will conclude with a short overview over our current research on stress resilience.

 

Termine im Wintersemester 2024/25

 

04.02.2025

Fabio Frommer (JGU Mainz)

Solutions of the Kirkwood-Salsburg equations at negative activity

It is well-known that the correlation functions of grand-canonical Gibbs measures satisfy the Kirkwood-Salsburg equations. If the activity is small enough it can be shown that this solution is unique and an analytic function of the activity. We show that in this case the solution of the Kirkwood-Salsburg equations at negative activity correspond to the Janossy densities of the so-called Kirkwood-closure process. This is an extension of the existence result of Kuna et al.

Einladung

 

19.11.2024 Sascha Franck (Universität zu Lübeck)
On the spread of an infection in a spatially distributed host population
with host immunity Einladung und Abstract
26.11.2024 Reinhard Höpfner (JGU Mainz, em.)
Circuts von Hodgkin-Huxley-Neuronen Einladung und Abstract
03.12.2024 Sebastian Hummel (ETH Zürich)
Multi-Type Birth-Death Processes with Mean-Field Interactions for B-cell PhylodynamicsEinladung und Abstract
21.01.2025 Mareike Fischer (Universität Greifswald)

On the reliability of Maximum Parsimony for encoding and reconstructing phylogenetic trees

Phylogenetic trees play a major role in the reconstruction and representation of evolutionary relationships among different species. Maximum parsimony (MP) is one of the oldest and simplest phylogenetic tree reconstruction criteria. While it is not based on a nucleotide substitution model but works in a purely combinatorial fashion, it is "folklore knowledge" amongst biologists that it works well whenever the number of substitutions is relatively small. Proving this assertion, which in some regard can be viewed as an extension of the famous Buneman theorem in mathematical phylogenetics, is mathematically quite intriguing. In my talk, I will provide some first steps in this regard, and I will make use of some beautiful combinatorial properties of MP. The results presented in my talk can be regarded as an important step towards proving that MP is justified whenever the number of substitutions is sufficiently small. I will also highlight how these findings on MP impact Maximum Likelihood, another famous tree reconstruction criterion. I will conclude my talk by pointing out some areas of ongoing and future research.

Einladung

 

vorangegangene Termine

Sommersemester 2024

07.05.2024

Prof. Dr. Steffen Dereich (WWU Münster)

Einladung und Abstract

28.05.2024

Stein Andreas Bethuelsen (University of Bergen)

Einladung und Abstract

04.06.2024

Samuel Modee (University of Bergen)

Einladung und Abstract

25.06.2024

Timo Schlüter (Universität Basel)

Einladung und Abstract

Wintersemester 2023/24

07.11.2023

Dr. Marco Seiler, Frankfurt

Einladung und Abstract